The Debt Crisis: Getting the Numbers Right

Here are two other sets of charts

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/filed-under-exponential


http://blog.heritage.org/2009/03/24/bush-deficit-vs-obama-deficit-in-pictures/ 


Mr. Avery's chart is bogus because it includes tax cuts as if that was a cost to the government.  It fails to take into account that these tax rates are dynamic and a tax cut may actually generate more money then it supposedly costs or that a tax increase may actually generate less money than current rates.  And that is what it did.  It also bogus because spending is originated by Congress and the major parts of the recent deficits happened after the Democrats took over Congress in 2007 and are really assignable to Reid and Pelosi.   Their first budget took place in 2008 and our current president voted for this budget as well as the subsequent one as well as the two prior one where the deficit was declining. 


The Democrats manufactured this current crisis.  They had the ability to raise the debt ceiling during the last congress but Reid, Pelosi and Obama chose not to in order to create what we have just wintnessed.  They knew the Republicans would resist and they thought they could create a media event to make them look bad.  They created a media event but it didn't quite work out as planned.  The key thing in all this is that Congress is scheduled to go on vacation today.  Wonder where the August 2 date came from.  Keith Hennessey said there would be a deal by today because of the vacation issue.  And here is what Obama said in 2006 when the debt limit was raised.


'“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that not pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s policies. Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here.' Instead, the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. better.”
- Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006 '


So we have just witnessed a glorious charade.


I suggest that Mr. Avery learn about base line budgeting and that most of the cuts in the supposed current deal are not realy cuts but just less of an increase in planned increases.  The current budget increases about 7% a year without anyone doing anything so reduction in these planned increased are said to be cuts when in fact they are anything but.

Megan McArdle of The Atlantic has an interesting post on the above cited graph, and why it's essentially misleading:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/a-few-more-charts-that-should-accompany-all-debt-ceiling-discussions/242790/

"I'm a little less enamored, considering that this graph attributes decisions made by Obama and an all-Democratic Congress-like doubling down in Afghanistan-to Bush, while taking responsibility for basically nothing except the stimulus.  When Obama extends the Bush tax cuts for the rich under pressure from Congressional Republicans, that disappears from his side of the ledger, because after all, he didn't want to do it.  When Bush enacts Medicare Part D under pressure from Congressional Democrats, the full cost is charged against his presidency.  The list of such silliness goes on.  Our president seems set to coin another presidential motto: "The duck starts here.""

That politicians are busy trying to make each other look bad in this mess is something we would expect. But, once again, articles like this add heat not light to discussion.  

Mr Michael Avery posts a chart from the 'paper of record' and it becomes HIS chart according to above posters. I guess the 'enjoy' part set people off! Hey, folks.. it's a NYT chart.. the rants are all your own except the  cut and paste off topic stuff.

Mr. Gleason - the "cut and paste stuff" addresses the chart linked above.  Maybe try to read it before you dismiss it.