McCains ABCs

John McCain is effectively the nominee of the GOP. He has more than 700 delegates of the 1,191 needed and his closest rival Mitt Romney dropped out of the race yesterday. Mike Huckabee may make a last attempt to rally the conservative base, but he faces two problems. He only has 195 delegates and much of the base is as concerned about Huckabee’s economic views as they are about McCain’s immigration policy. McCain’s campaign would have to collapse for him to lose at this point. Looking ahead, however, McCain faces two large difficulties as a general election candidate, his age and the GOP base, but there is also an easy solution to both those difficulties if he is lucky enough to get it. All the candidates looked exhausted by Super Tuesday, but the strain on McCain was especially evident. He is 71 years old, and the too-short nights and the sheer, strange combination of repetition with exhilaration that comes from delivering a stump speech to enthusiastic crowds for the umpteenth time had taken their toll. Ronald Reagan was 73 when he ran for re-election in 1984 against Walter Mondale. After a meandering answer to the final question of the first debate, questions were raised about Reagan’s lucidity but he squelched them in the second debate. When asked if he thought age was an important concern, Reagan promised "I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience." The Reagan magic was back. He was a very young 73 and he looked it. John McCain is not a young 71. Five years in a prisoner-of-war camp would take a toll on anyone’s physical and mental state. He has had a couple of bouts with skin cancer. His much younger second wife accentuates his age. And, the wear-and-tear of a presidential campaign, the re-circulated air on the airplanes, the hurried meals, the need to be always "on" would sap the strength of a much younger man. McCain’s other problem is his base. Rush Limbuagh has said McCain will "destroy" the GOP and Ann Coulter has said she would vote for arch-enemy Hillary before she would vote for McCain. (This is Leninism – the conviction that things must get worse to get better.) They are loud and they have their followers, but McCain’s real problem is with the anti-immigrant fervor among average Republicans. In debate after debate, the issue of illegal immigration dominated all other issues because poll after poll showed that this was an issue that moved voters. McCain may or may not be able to appease the base on this issue, but if he tries to, he will forfeit any opportunity to reach out to moderates and to Latinos. George Bush took 44% of the Latino vote in 2004 and 31% in 2001. That number could plummet for the GOP this year. Even more importantly, pandering to the right will thoroughly compromise his reputation as a straight shooter and maverick. What to do? Pray that the Dems nominate Hillary. As former Bush spokesman Ari Fleisher said on CNN Tuesday night, "There is no doubt ... we hope and pray every night to run against Hillary Clinton." Though younger than McCain, her candidacy does not represent a generational change. And despite the excitement about electing the first woman president, Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton just doesn’t sound like change. And, she is the one person that can do what McCain, Romney and Huckabee can’t: unite the GOP base. Michael Sean Winters