Following negotiations that have continued since the election in late November, a new government has been formed in Ireland. It looks remarkably like the last one. The two dominant parties of the outgoing government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remain at the helm, maintaining a grip on power that has lasted for generations. Yet, despite campaign promises of change, leaders from the governing coalition return to office facing a crisis that has deepened under their watch: a broken housing system that is driving people into homelessness, debt and even emigration.
Éamon Ó Cuív, a former cabinet minister who served 32 years in the Irish parliament, is uniquely well-placed to offer an analysis of the recent election and the prospects of this new government. As he sees it, “the status quo was preserved” by the election. The electorate seemed to say, “As you were.”
He grants that it is a “big change” that the governing majority in the Dáil, or lower house of parliament, now includes a loose coalition of independents who are not aligned with a party. They will likely tilt the government in a more conservative direction that is more concerned with the needs of rural Ireland. But he disagrees with the widespread view that the almost complete wipeout of Ireland’s Green Party indicated a shift away from environmental concerns among voters.
As he sees it, the Labour Party and the Social Democrats share the Green Party’s strong focus on the climate crisis and loss of biodiversity. If these three parties can be grouped together as an ecological bloc, in the last parliament they had 24 seats, and now they have 23.
But when he considers the challenges facing the new government, he is clear that a new direction must be charted: “The big difference I’d like to see and must see is that we can legislate all we want, but in the end, we have to do something.”
Specifically, the government faces a housing crisis in Ireland that has become an economic and demographic emergency. Skilled young people are leaving the country in increasing numbers, unable to afford a future at home. Essential workers in education and health care struggle to find places to live in urban centers. Companies are resorting to buying up housing for employees, further exacerbating an already overheated market.
Mr. Ó Cuív said that there are many plans to both expand housing and protect the environment, but practical implementation has been lacking. The new government will succeed, he suggests, if it manages to build houses, expand public transport and erect wind turbines.
A similar view comes from Peter McVerry, S.J., a household name in Ireland whose perspective on social issues is widely respected. For over 40 years, he has worked with Ireland’s homeless population. He has also witnessed successive governments promise action on housing while overseeing rising rents, record home prices and an ever-growing crisis in the availability of shelter.
His assessment is blunt: “We have record levels of homelessness, record house prices, record rents. And now we have [essentially] the same government back again, making the same promises. But nobody believes them. Not even themselves.”
Father McVerry argues that the failure to address this crisis will have long-term consequences. Echoing Mr. Ó Cuív, he concludes that “unless we change course, not only will our economy suffer, but more and more people will be stuck in homelessness, trapped in poor-quality private rental housing, or forced to emigrate.”
Action on Ireland’s ecological challenges is also needed, but many of the independent members of parliament that the new government coalition relies on can be described as “climate skeptical.”
Mr. Ó Cuív does not see this as a problem. He hopes that his party colleagues in Fianna Fáil and their partners in Fine Gael will realize how important it is to “make things attractive to people.” The environmental policies he thinks should be a top concern can be advocated without reference to the ecological crisis.
“It is an utter no-brainer,” he argues, “to harvest our natural resources. Even if there was no environmental damage, it would be absolutely ridiculous not to build our wind capacity and install solar. It would be the same as saying you found oil wells all around the island and then you decide not to develop them! There is an economic argument here. There is an energy security argument here. And I know these people well. They are very pragmatic people.”
Whether the independent members of parliament can be swayed on this, and whether the new government can manage to build houses, remains to be seen. But Mr. Ó Cuív hopes for success on both counts. This new government may look quite like the old one, but it will have to develop different tactics. Mr. Ó Cuív advises: “You have to be able to bend, listen and amend when you want to do things.”
What actions should be taken to resolve Ireland’s housing crisis is not a great mystery, according to Father McVerry. He cites a shelved 50-year-old government plan that would end land speculation, one of the key factors in creating unaffordable housing. He notes one incident he is familiar with in Dublin County, where two investors bought a plot of land for 2.5 million euros, obtained planning permission for 340 houses, and then resold the land for 25 million euros without building a single home. Reforming this policy would be a first step.
Establishing a National House Building Agency would be the next stage. This company would be tasked with building public housing on land already owned by the state on a not-for-profit basis. The difference this would make is significant, says Father McVerry: “A state agency could build homes at cost, without the need for the 15 to 20 percent profit margin private developers require.”
Finally, Father McVerry suggests adding a clause on the right to housing into the Irish Constitution. He explains that “the right to private property dominates everything” and a commitment that clearly placed the common good over private interest on a matter as important as housing would rebalance how lawyers and planners approach their tasks.
He is convinced that this move would be welcomed by the church. “The church supports the right to private property,” Father McVerry says, “but it cannot take precedence over human rights. And housing is a human right. If the right to private property prevents people from accessing decent housing, then the right to housing must take precedence.”
The church, while not silent on the housing crisis, has been careful to not appear in any way political. Father McVerry believes this is a fundamental mistake. “Politics,” he argues, “is the process by which we bring justice to a sinful world. The church cannot avoid politics.”
“It cannot avoid challenging policies that deny people their basic rights,” he continues. “We are one of the wealthiest countries in the world. We have a 26-billion-euro budget surplus. And yet food kitchens are booming. More and more people are queuing up because they cannot afford to feed themselves. That is an absolute scandal. The church should be calling that out.”
Whether Mr. Ó Cuív’s hope for government action or Father McVerry’s call for church involvement come to pass, the new government faces a test that goes beyond abstract economic targets. Political survival is often determined by tangible outcomes.
Mr. Ó Cuív warns, “It’s the little things that slip you up.” A government can manage G.D.P. growth, attract foreign investment and balance public finances, yet it can still fail if it cannot build houses or erect wind turbines. If this administration does not deliver on housing, its legacy will not be defined by economic success, but by the growing number of people who cannot afford a home.
