As cease-fire wobbles, new study finds Gaza death toll likely much higher than believed

Kevin ClarkeJanuary 16, 2025

Palestinians celebrate the announcement of a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

The announcement of a cease-fire between the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas by the Biden administration and negotiators in Qatar on Jan. 15 provoked what may prove to be premature celebration in the debris-strewn streets of Gaza. Accusing Hamas of last-minute additions that jeopardize the agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed a cabinet vote, which had been scheduled to take place on Jan. 16. And even as word of a possible cease-fire inspired widespread joy among Palestinians on Jan. 15, the I.D.F. launched airstrikes following the announcement that killed at least 83 people in Gaza.

Those latest deaths add to the astounding loss of life in the Gaza Strip since the I.D.F. began its incursion in October 2023. That massive I.D.F. campaign began in response to a Hamas murder and hostage-taking raid on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The latest casualties add to the more than 46,000 who have been killed—about 2 percent of the Gazan population—and the more than 110,000 who have been wounded during 15 months of war inside the densely populated strip, according to Palestinian health officials.

Israeli officials and supporters of Israel around the world have frequently accused the Gaza Ministry of Health of fabricating higher numbers of the dead and maimed, and the ministry has never attempted to distinguish noncombatants from combatants in its somber daily tally. But a new report published in the U.K. medical journal The Lancet indicates that far from exaggerating the human suffering in Gaza, the ministry has likely underestimated the true number of the dead by as much as 41 percent.

The statistical analysis conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions concludes that the likely toll in Gaza between October 2023 and June 2024 “from traumatic injury” is as high as 64,260. That estimate, of course, does not include the numbers killed over the ensuing months, nor does it count the unknown number of dead buried under the Gaza rubble—perhaps 10,000 more, according to some estimates. The estimate in The Lancet also makes no attempt to include deaths in Gaza from secondary effects of the conflict like hunger, disease or untreated illnesses that have afflicted the general population as the I.D.F. campaign obliterated housing and health services across the strip.

According to the report, “The high mortality rates shown by our study, combined with previous evidence, underscore the severe crisis in the Gaza Strip.”

“Our findings validate concerns raised by Palestinian and international organisations, including reputable human rights and humanitarian organisations and [United Nations] special rapporteurs, about the scale of civilian casualties…. This evidence confirms the need for urgent international interventions to prevent further loss of life and address the long-term health consequences of the Israeli military assault in Gaza.”

As conditions in Gaza deteriorated over months of combat, many aid groups faulted Israel for obstacles it threw up to the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The Lancet report includes estimates from other sources that indirect mortality factors could mean the actual death toll in Gaza exceeds 186,000.

Over the course of the 15-month-long campaign against Hamas, I.D.F. strikes have leveled housing and infrastructure across Gaza, including hospitals, water and sewage treatment plants, power facilities, mosques and schools. The attacks have displaced almost the entire population of 2.3 million people from their homes.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians now contend with hunger and disease in squalid camps along the coast in southern Gaza. Justifying the I.D.F.’s targeting of civilian sites, Israeli officials accuse Hamas of using noncombatants as “human shields” and allege that the group uses civilian sites to store weapons or launch rockets.

Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel in October 2023 inspired widespread sympathy and support for the Jewish homeland, particularly in the United States, the source of military sales and assistance to Israel. But over months of intense combat and bombardment, Israel’s conduct of the war against Hamas has provoked increasing scrutiny and condemnation. South Africa has introduced charges of genocide against Israeli officials at the International Criminal Court in the Hague, and warrants have been issued by the court for the arrest of both Hamas officials and Israeli leaders including Mr. Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, Israel’s former defense minister.

Public figures and political leaders around the world have joined in the criticism of I.D.F. tactics, which they charge have shown a tolerance for civilian deaths that defies both international humanitarian law and U.S. law governing arms shipments to allies. During his annual address to the Vatican diplomatic corps on Jan. 9, Pope Francis called the humanitarian situation in Gaza “very serious and shameful.”

“War is always a failure!” the pope said, in an address that was read by Monsignor Filippo Ciampanelli, the undersecretary of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches. “The involvement of civilians, especially children, and the destruction of infrastructures is not only a disaster, but essentially means that between the two sides only evil emerges the winner. We cannot in any way accept the bombing of civilians or the attacking of infrastructures necessary for their survival. We cannot accept that children are freezing to death because hospitals have been destroyed or a country’s energy network has been hit.”

Humanitarian groups welcomed the news of a breakthrough on Jan. 15, imploring that aid corridors into Gaza be quickly opened. In a statement on Jan. 16, Caritas Internationalis officials said the humanitarian situation in Gaza had reached “catastrophic levels.”

“It is critical that Israel removes all obstacles preventing humanitarian organisations from delivering rapid and effective assistance,” Caritas, the church’s international relief and development agency, said. “This includes lifting the ban on UNRWA [the U.N. agency managing the refugee population in Gaza] to enable it to operate without restrictions and scale up the response.”

If the cease-fire begins as planned on Jan. 19, fighting will stop in Gaza for 42 days, and the first of three proposed phases will begin. During the first phase, Hamas is to release 33 hostages in exchange for the freeing of hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. By the end of phase one, all living women, children and older people held by the militants should be freed.

Some 100 hostages remain captive inside Gaza, a mix of civilians and soldiers. The Israeli military believes at least a third of them are dead.

Catholic bishops of the Holy Land welcomed news of the cease-fire in a statement released on Jan. 16. “We hope that this ceasefire will mark an important end to the violence that has caused immeasurable suffering,” they wrote. “It is a necessary step to halt the destruction and meet the urgent humanitarian needs of countless families affected by the conflict.”

The bishops added, however, that they were “aware that the end of the war does not mean the end of the conflict.”

“It is therefore necessary,” they wrote, “to seriously and credibly address the deep-rooted issues that have been at the root of this conflict for far too long. Genuine and lasting peace can only be achieved through a just solution that addresses the origin of this long-standing struggle. This requires a long process, a willingness to acknowledge each other’s suffering and a focused education in trust that leads to overcoming fear of the other and the justification of violence as a political tool.”

They concluded: “A future built on dignity, security and freedom for all peoples is a prerequisite for true and lasting peace.… May the Lord bless this land with peace and lead us all on the path of reconciliation and healing.”

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